1461 Large uptick in Earthquakes Tonga Region. Three 6.0 EQS likely all foreshocks
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22 Mar 2026
A significant increase in earthquake activity has been observed in the Tonga region, with three 6.0 magnitude earthquakes occurring within a short period. This heightened activity, coupled with the region’s high slip rate and historical occurrences of larger earthquakes, raises concerns about the potential for a more significant seismic event. Additionally, increased solar activity, characterised by large coronal holes, may be contributing to this heightened seismic activity.
A 3.4 magnitude earthquake occurred in the southern Yukon area, followed by a 6.1 magnitude earthquake in the same region. The Pacific Northwest, particularly the Seattle fault, is experiencing earthquake activity, with a potential for a 7.5 magnitude earthquake. The Bay Area and Southern California are currently quiet, with minimal earthquake activity.
Sunspot 4400 has grown since last night’s image and is not in a favourable position for Earth-directed solar flares. The flare threat remains low, with a 10% chance of M-flares and a 1% chance of X-flares. Severe weather is expected in Pennsylvania and Ohio, with a 2% tornado threat, but the main threat is large wind gusts and hail.
Key Points
- Earthquake Activity: A 3.6 magnitude earthquake occurred near the Philippines, and a significant cluster of earthquakes, including three 6.0 magnitude events, happened near Tonga.
- Potential Major Earthquake: The Tonga earthquake activity resembles foreshocks of a larger event, prompting a review of historical earthquakes in the region, particularly those above magnitude 7.5.
- Deep Earthquake Activity: A 7.6 magnitude earthquake occurred at a depth of 210 kilometres, indicating significant seismic activity.
- Potential for Larger Quakes: The area has a history of larger earthquakes, including two 8.0 magnitude events in the early 1900s and a 8.0 magnitude earthquake in 2006.
- High Slip Rate and Stress Accumulation: The region exhibits a high slip rate of 240mm per year, suggesting a high level of stress accumulation and the potential for larger earthquakes.
- Earthquake Activity in Solomon Islands: A seismograph station is located in the Solomon Islands, an area with recent earthquake activity including three six-pointers and deeper earthquakes that increase stress and strain.
- Potential for Larger Earthquake: The lack of a major earthquake in the past week despite significant smaller tremors suggests a potential for a larger event soon.
- Increased Earthquake Activity: There has been a noticeable increase in earthquake activity, particularly six-pointers, with three occurring in the last 24 hours and another a day or so prior, potentially linked to heightened coronal hole activity.
- Solar Activity and Earthquakes: Discussion about the correlation between large coronal holes on the sun and increased earthquake activity on Earth.
- Global Earthquake Monitoring: Detailed analysis of recent earthquake activity in various regions, including Tonga, Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, Alaska, and the Curl Cam Chaka and Illusian trenches.
- Unusual Seismic Patterns: Observation of a 4.4 magnitude earthquake in a previously quiet zone and the lack of recent activity along the Illusian Trench despite stress buildup.
- Recent Earthquake Activity: A swarm of earthquakes along the Illutian Trench plate boundary, with a recent 4.4 magnitude quake.
- Alaska Earthquake Update: A 6.1 magnitude earthquake in northern Alaska was quickly downgraded to a 3.4, highlighting potential reporting discrepancies in remote areas.
- USGS Earthquake Notifications: The speaker received notifications for both the initial 6.1 and the corrected 3.4 magnitude earthquake.
- Seismic Activity in the Pacific Northwest: Several earthquakes reported on the Seattle fault, which is capable of producing a 7.5 magnitude earthquake.
- Potential Impact of Seattle Fault Earthquake: A 7.5 magnitude earthquake directly beneath Seattle could be more damaging than a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake due to proximity.
- Seismic Activity in Other Regions: Relatively quiet seismic activity in Northern California, Southern California, and Yellowstone.
- Earthquake Activity Summary: Brief overview of earthquake activity in various regions, including Yellowstone, Peran Basin, and Tonga.
- Tonga Area Seismic Activity: A 7.4 magnitude earthquake followed by smaller aftershocks is typical, but the current activity pattern in Tonga warrants monitoring.
- Meteorite Activity: Two meteorite fragments found near Houston, Texas within a week.
- Earthquake Activity: Several small earthquakes reported across the Mediterranean, Atlantic relatively quiet.
- Space Weather Activity: Corona hole activity observed, aurora events continuing at G3 class storm level.
- Interplanetary Magnetic Field: Negative BZ component (around -10) allowing amplification of aurora activity despite limited solar activity.
- Aurora Activity: High chance of aurora activity tonight due to wide open high-speed solar windstream. Potential view line further south if conditions persist in the G2 G3 category.
- Solar Flaring Activity: Starting to stair step into the C flare category, indicating increasing magnetic complexity on the sun.
- Sunspot Observation: One sunspot is growing and showing signs of increased magnetic complexity, while another sunspot is not very active.
- Sunspot Activity: Several returning sunspots observed on the northeastern limb of the sun, with one potentially being a previously active sunspot (4366) known for X-flare and M-flare activity.
- Sunspot Complexity and Flare Potential: While some magnetic complexity is observed, suggesting a slight increase in C-flare activity, the sunspots are not deemed complex enough to pose a significant threat of major M-flares or X-flares.
- Sunspot 4400 Monitoring: Sunspot 4400, which has grown significantly, is being monitored due to its potential for Earth-directed solar flares, although its current position is considered unfavourable for such events.
- Close Approach Asteroids: Discussion about recently discovered asteroids, their sizes, and distances from Earth, noting that none pose a significant threat.
- Severe Weather Update: An enhanced area of severe weather is expected in parts of Pennsylvania and Ohio, with the main threats being damaging wind gusts and large hail.
- Weather System Movement: A frontal boundary is moving from the south or north to the south, potentially bringing large hail and wind damage.
- Moisture and Precipitation: Significant moisture is moving in from the south, particularly from the Gulf and Mexico, potentially leading to severe weather and multi-day events in Texas.
- Unseasonal Heat and Drought: Northern California is experiencing record-breaking heat and drought in March, with temperatures reaching levels more typical of May or June.
- Earthquake Monitoring: The speaker is monitoring earthquake activity using various stations around the world, including Tonga, Samoa, Turkey, Southern California, Northern California, Philippines, Solomon Islands, Mount St. Helens, and Japan.
- Microquake Detection: A small earthquake occurred on Petroleia, but it was too small to be automatically published on the map.