1104 Game Theory #9: The US-Iran War

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1104 Game Theory #9: The US-Iran War

3 Mar 2026 The US and Israel have launched a war against Iran, killing the Iranian Supreme Leader and his family. This has sparked a religious war, with Iran targeting the GCC countries, particularly Bahrain, which houses the US Fifth Fleet. The conflict is expected to last for weeks or years, significantly altering the geopolitical landscape.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway crucial for global oil transportation, is at the centre of a potential conflict between Iran and the GCC. Iran, utilising its mountainous terrain for strategic advantage, could easily target GCC oil fields, water desalination plants, and American military bases. This vulnerability, coupled with Iran’s own water scarcity, creates a precarious situation with the potential for widespread global economic and political consequences.

The US military, designed for conventional warfare, is ill-equipped to combat Iran’s asymmetric tactics, such as using cheap, easily transportable drones. This, coupled with the US’s outdated military doctrine and corruption, makes it vulnerable. Additionally, water scarcity in the Middle East, particularly in the GCC, poses a significant threat, as destroying desalination plants could cripple the region.

The text discusses the potential future of Iran, highlighting water scarcity as a major issue and a potential point of geopolitical tension. It suggests that the US and Israel might exploit this weakness, along with Iran’s diverse ethnic makeup, to destabilise the country. The text also explores Iran’s potential response, including uniting Shia Muslims against the US and establishing a new Islamic order.

Key points

* World War III Outbreak: World War III has begun with the United States and Israel attacking Iran. * Iranian Supreme Leader’s Death: The Iranian Supreme Leader, Alatona Hami, was killed in an airstrike along with several family members. * Course Focus: The course will use game theory to analyse the geopolitical situation and make predictions about the war’s outcome. * Iranian Perspective on War: For Iranians, the war is a jihad, a holy war against the “great Satan” to avenge their leader and fight to the death. * Shia Muslim Beliefs: Martyrdom is a core value in Shia Islam, providing purpose and motivating sacrifice for the religion and the common good. * Iranian Response to Attack: Iranians believe the Israelis purposefully attacked a school to kill children, viewing it as consistent with their actions in Gaza and Palestine. * Iran’s Retaliation: Iran retaliated against the GCC countries, including Dubai, after the war began. * Dubai’s Neutrality: Dubai, despite claiming neutrality and focusing on economic prosperity under American protection, became a target of Iran’s attack. * Dubai’s Economic Model: Dubai thrives as a wealthy and safe city, attracting westerners with its tax-free environment, high salaries, and vibrant lifestyle, centred around aviation, logistics, finance, and tourism. * Dubai’s Future: Dubai’s reputation as a safe haven for wealth is shattered, leading to a predicted decline as a destination for wealthy westerners. * Reason for GCC Targeting: The GCC nations, despite claiming neutrality, are targeted by Iran because they house American military assets and allow the US and Israel to use their airspace for attacks on Iran. * Bahrain’s Significance: Bahrain, home to the US Fifth Fleet and a significant Shia population under Sunni rule, is highlighted as a potential major conflict centre due to Iranian attacks on US military assets. * Geopolitical Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure: Closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for global oil transportation, would have severe consequences for the global economy, particularly impacting Asian economies heavily reliant on oil imports from the GCC region. * Shia Uprising and Regional Instability: The death of the Ayatollah could potentially trigger a Shia uprising in Bahrain, leading to regional instability and the potential collapse of the GCC, with Saudi Arabia being a potential long-term casualty. * Predicting War Progression Using Geography: Understanding the geography of the conflict zone, particularly the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, allows for predictions about the war’s progression, even without knowledge of the specific participants or weaponry involved. * GCC’s Importance: The GCC is crucial to the American empire because it supports the petrodollar system, which gives the US dollar its value. * GCC’s Vulnerability: The GCC relies heavily on food imports (80%) and is vulnerable to being cut off, potentially leading to starvation and economic collapse. * Iran’s Strategy: Iran can use its mountainous terrain to hide military assets and launch attacks on GCC targets, including American military bases. * GCC Vulnerability: The GCC is highly vulnerable to drone attacks due to its exposed infrastructure, including oil fields and desalination plants, which are crucial for its water supply. * Iran’s Asymmetric Advantage: Iran holds an asymmetric advantage over the GCC due to its mountainous terrain, providing a defensive stronghold against attacks. * Water as a Strategic Target: Both Iran and the GCC face water scarcity, making water infrastructure a strategic target in potential conflicts. * War Outcome: The war’s outcome is uncertain, resembling a game of chicken with potentially devastating consequences. * American Involvement: Key questions revolve around whether the US will deploy ground troops and if nuclear weapons will be used. * Global Impact: The war’s potential to escalate into a global conflict involving major powers like Russia and China is a major concern. * Purpose of American Bases: Originally established to protect Middle Eastern monarchies from their own people, these bases are now primarily used to impose American authority in the region. * Cold War Influence on Military: The American military, built during the Cold War, was designed for mutually assured destruction with the Soviet Union, not for defending against other enemies. * Nature of Empire: Empire is described as an illusion, an aura of invisibility and inability, relying on fear and obedience rather than direct conflict. * War Strategy: Iranians attack everywhere to destabilise the economy and government, while Americans and Israelis focus on Tran using “shock and awe” tactics. * Iranian Military Doctrine: Decentralised command and control with total war declared, meaning knocking out Tran won’t stop the fight. * American Military Doctrine: Not equipped to fight a 21st-century war against drones and religious fanatics, despite appearing invincible. * Asymmetry in Warfare: Two sides fighting different wars using different techniques due to differing strengths and resources. * Iran’s Asymmetric Strategy: Utilising cheap, easily produced Shahed drones for offensive operations, causing significant damage despite limited resources. * US Countermeasures: The text doesn’t explicitly state US countermeasures but implies they are focused on defending against drone attacks. * Expensive and Ineffective Defence System: The FAD system, costing $1 million per missile, is ineffective against cheap drones, often requiring multiple missiles to neutralise a single target. * Vulnerability and Lack of Adaptability: The system’s size and immobility make it an easy target, highlighting a lack of preparedness against modern warfare tactics like drone attacks. * Outdated Military Doctrine: The American military’s focus on Cold War-era strategies, emphasising displays of power over practical defence, hinders its ability to address contemporary threats effectively. * Water Scarcity in the Middle East: Many Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE, face extreme water stress, consuming far more water than is sustainably available. * Water as a Strategic Vulnerability: The Middle East’s reliance on desalination plants makes them vulnerable to attacks that could cripple their water supply. * Iran’s Water Challenges: Despite its ability to inflict damage on its neighbours, Iran also faces significant water shortages, highlighting the regional nature of the water crisis. * Water Scarcity in Iran: Lake Heria, once the sixth largest saltwater lake in the world, has almost completely dried up, highlighting the severe water crisis in Iran. * Iran’s Ethnic Diversity as a Weakness: Iran’s diverse ethnic makeup, with border regions having stronger ties to neighbouring countries, is considered a potential point of vulnerability. * Predicted Geopolitical Strategy: The predicted strategy involves exploiting Iran’s water scarcity and ethnic diversity to destabilise the nation, potentially leading to internal conflict over resources. * American Plan: To destroy Iran by exploiting ethnic tensions and creating a civil war. * Iranian Response: To unite all Shia people worldwide against the American Empire. * Shia Demographics: 90% of the Muslim population are Sunni, while Shia are concentrated in Iran but spread throughout the world. * Global Shia Jihad: The first strategy is to incite a global jihad of Shia against the American empire as vengeance for the killing of key figures. * Unifying the Muslim World: The second strategy is to unify the Muslim world under Iranian leadership by overthrowing unpopular dictatorships supported by the American empire. * Establishing Pax Islamika: The ultimate goal is to establish Pax Islamika, a period of peace in the Islamic world, by unifying it under a single religious authority. * GCC’s Role in US Economy: GCC countries sell oil for US dollars and invest heavily in the US stock market, making them crucial to the US economy. * Impact of Cutting Off Oil: If GCC countries cut off oil, they lose access to US dollars, forcing them to spend resources on self-protection, potentially collapsing the US stock market. * US Stock Market Vulnerability: The US stock market’s reliance on a few key companies, heavily invested in by GCC nations, makes it vulnerable to economic collapse if GCC investments cease. * Reason for Global Involvement: The primary reason for global involvement in the conflict is energy access and protection of energy supplies. * Europe’s Dependence on GCC: Europe’s reliance on the GCC for energy resources highlights the interconnectedness of the conflict. * Russia’s Strategic Interests: Russia’s strategic interest in preventing Iran’s downfall underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics at play.